A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
